{ "model_version": "0.5.0", "commit": "47f9050", "date": "2026-10-20", "scenarios": { "baseline": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "compute_bound": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.05, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.7, "experiment_ces_rho": -2.0, "fishing_out": 0.5, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "sustained_recursion": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "sustained", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "breakthrough_driven": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "breakthrough", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "slow_diffusion": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 12.0, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "fast_diffusion": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 3.0, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "grid_bound": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 7, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.8, "btm_share": 0.15, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.2, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "btm_gas": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.3, "btm_share": 0.6, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.6, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "capital_discipline": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.2, "hurdle_softness": 0.05, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 2.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "overbuild": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.3, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.3, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.3, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 2.0, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "friction_only": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": false, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "no_politics": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": false, "policy_reaction": false, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "weak_institutions": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.05, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.6, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.15, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.25, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "strong_institutions": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.25, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.5, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.6, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "narrow_ownership": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.3, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.0, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "wage_insurance": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.6, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "fixed_complementarity": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "sustained", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "regime_change": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.15, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 1.0, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.0, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.15, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.05, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.8, "capital_income_to_households": 0.2, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.9, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "competitive_intelligence": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.0, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.0, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "scarce_intelligence": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.15, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 1.0, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.9, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "no_new_tasks": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.0, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "robots_frozen": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 0.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "robotics_fast": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.2, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.6, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.5, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 800.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 6.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.5, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "robotics_slow": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.08, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.15, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 0.5, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 5000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 15.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "citizen_dividend": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.5, "transfer_universal_share": 0.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true }, "universal_transfers": { "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2050, "history_start_year": 2019, "history_compute_growth": 2.3, "history_efficiency_growth": 2.83, "history_frontier_growth": 4.5, "history_adoption_rate": 0.85, "history_cost_decline": 3.5, "history_hardware_decline": 1.4, "history_eta_growth": 1.3, "history_real_growth": 0.02, "compute_growth_initial": 1.0, "compute_growth_long_run": 0.35, "compute_growth_halflife": 4.0, "fab_capacity_growth": 0.5, "fab_capacity_growth_initial": 0.65, "fab_growth_halflife": 3.0, "fab_initial_headroom": 1.05, "physical_depreciation": 0.1, "book_life_years": 5.0, "secondary_haircut": 0.3, "compute_depreciation": 0.2, "hardware_cost_decline": 0.28, "energy_cost_share_2025": 0.15, "grid_lag_years": 5, "btm_lag_years": 2, "retrofit_lag_years": 1, "grid_share": 0.6, "btm_share": 0.3, "grid_unit_cost": 1.0, "btm_unit_cost": 1.47, "retrofit_unit_cost": 0.33, "forecast_growth_cap": 0.25, "energy_growth": 0.4, "energy_initial_headroom": 1.0, "energy_pipeline_2026": 0.45, "energy_pipeline_2027": 0.4, "energy_target_headroom": 0.15, "energy_capital_depreciation": 0.03, "energy_efficiency_gain": 0.28, "energy_efficiency_ceiling": 20.0, "capacity_factor_ai": 0.85, "energy_price_growth": 0.01, "energy_scarcity_alpha": 1.5, "grid_socialised_share": 0.5, "household_electricity_share": 0.03, "ratebase_scale": 0.025, "energy_lcoe_share": 0.8, "frontier_power_cost_share": 0.3, "algo_progress_2025": 0.9, "recursion_strength": 0.15, "research_quality_exponent": 0.3, "research_labor_exponent": 0.5, "experiment_share": 0.5, "experiment_ces_rho": -1.0, "fishing_out": 0.35, "algorithmic_soft_limit": 100000000.0, "research_regime": "diminishing", "sustained_feedback": 0.5, "research_productivity_cap": 100.0, "breakthrough_hazard": 0.08, "breakthrough_hazard_exponent": 0.25, "breakthrough_hazard_cap": 0.35, "breakthrough_jump_ln": 1.1, "breakthrough_jump_sd_ln": 0.5, "breakthrough_deploy_lag_years": 2, "breakthrough_deploy_years": 3, "breakthrough_hardware_share": 0.25, "breakthrough_energy_share": 0.15, "breakthrough_seed": 1, "soft_limit_width": 2.0, "research_compute_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_share": 0.2, "research_compute_ref_share": 0.1, "experiment_compute_ref_share": 0.2, "compute_elasticity": 0.5, "frontier_compute_share": 0.04, "frontier_growth_initial": 1.25, "frontier_growth_halflife": 3.0, "frontier_share_max": 0.3, "efficiency_channel_training": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_inference": 1.0, "efficiency_channel_agents": 1.0, "open_weights_lag_years": 1.0, "accountability_floor": 0.15, "horizon_hours_2025": 3.5, "horizon_exponent": 1.9, "horizon_80_ratio": 0.2, "horizon_midpoint_hours": 60.0, "horizon_width": 2.0, "autonomy_discount": 1.0, "research_horizon_ratio": 1.0, "diffusion_lag_years": 4.4, "diffusion_initial": 0.02, "cost_advantage_ref": 1.5, "ai_cost_ratio_2025": 0.25, "ai_services_share_2025": 0.0005, "ai_services_share_max": 0.03, "ai_services_compute_share_2025": 0.6, "ai_services_pool_share_max": 0.6, "vendor_gross_margin_2025": 0.4, "vendor_gross_margin_long_run": 0.25, "vendor_margin_halflife": 8.0, "ai_review_overhead_2025": 0.15, "ai_review_overhead_decline": 0.15, "ai_scarcity_alpha": 0.5, "ai_scarcity_inertia": 0.5, "physical_automation": true, "robot_task_share_2025": 0.034, "robot_cost_ratio_2025": 1.0, "robot_cost_decline": 0.15, "robot_reliability_2025": 0.3, "robot_reliability_ceiling": 0.85, "robot_reliability_rate": 0.35, "robot_cost_floor": 0.1, "robot_diffusion_scale": 1.0, "physical_floor": 0.4, "physical_base_substitutable": 0.08, "physical_horizon_midpoint_hours": 3000.0, "physical_horizon_width": 3.0, "physical_diffusion_lag_years": 8.0, "robot_fleet_growth_cap": 0.35, "robot_life_years": 8.0, "robot_capital_share_of_cost": 0.7, "robot_finance_cap": 0.5, "robot_energy_share_2025": 0.03, "physical_volume_passthrough": 0.6, "physical_wage_elasticity": 0.5, "physical_hiring_inertia": 0.5, "cognitive_satiation_multiple": 3.0, "ownership_broadening": 0.0, "transfer_universal_share": 1.0, "necessities_cost_share_2025": 0.76, "necessities_energy_weight": 0.08, "within_quintile_sigma": 0.35, "cognitive_labor_share_2025": 0.45, "human_volume_passthrough": 0.4, "complementarity_decay": 1.0, "complementarity_family": "declining", "complementarity_creation": 0.5, "research_workforce_share_2025": 0.057, "research_handful": 0.01, "wage_demand_elasticity": 0.35, "absorption_rate": 0.12, "physical_labor_elasticity": 0.6, "physical_wage_drag": 0.3, "cognitive_labor_comp_share": 0.65, "physical_labor_comp_share": 0.6, "friction_max": 0.5, "stress_threshold": 0.03, "stress_width": 0.015, "escalation_threshold": 0.12, "escalation_max": 0.4, "capture_cap": 0.5, "stress_rate_weight": 2.0, "stress_longterm_weight": 1.0, "stress_gap_weight": 0.3, "local_concentration_factor": 3.0, "local_trigger": 0.045, "stress_local_weight": 1.0, "policy_lag": 0.3, "transfer_response": 4.0, "fiscal_tax_cap": 0.5, "almp_response": 1.0, "almp_job_finding_boost": 2.0, "floor_friction_response": 0.3, "floor_pressure_response": 0.1, "antitrust_response": 0.5, "antitrust_reference": 0.02, "out_of_sample_pool": 0.15, "job_finding_rate": 0.4, "reemployment_wage_discount": 0.3, "long_term_transition": 0.3, "long_term_job_finding_factor": 0.5, "exit_rate": 0.1, "scarring": 1.5, "task_separation_share": 0.3, "entry_margin_share": 0.7, "entry_cohort_rate": 0.03, "entry_visibility": 0.5, "hours_flex": 0.05, "cognitive_gdp_share_2025": 0.45, "household_cognitive_share_2025": 0.25, "cognitive_input_share_physical": 0.25, "cognitive_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "physical_demand_elasticity": 0.3, "cognitive_income_tilt": 0.4, "cognitive_variety_share": 0.6, "physical_productivity_growth": 0.01, "physical_ai_spillover": 0.02, "frontier_actors_2025": 5.0, "concentration_elasticity": 0.2, "rent_capture_max": 0.6, "capital_income_to_households": 0.6, "mpc_labor": 0.85, "mpc_transfers": 0.6, "mpc_capital": 0.35, "transfer_rate": 0.15, "government_share_2025": 0.17, "saving_to_investment": 1.0, "demand_displacement_share": 0.5, "physical_price_passthrough": 0.5, "cognitive_trend_growth": 0.02, "compute_capital_share_2025": 0.01, "compute_opex_rate": 0.05, "energy_capital_share_2025": 0.004, "quality_absorption": 0.6, "inference_utilization_2025": 0.7, "base_hurdle_rate": 0.1, "hurdle_softness": 0.1, "target_utilization": 0.7, "investment_inertia": 0.5, "investment_commitment_lag_years": 2, "investment_horizon_years": 4.0, "expected_growth_cap": 0.7, "investment_multiplier_floor": 0.2, "investment_multiplier_cap": 1.5, "hardware_margin_initial": 0.7, "hardware_margin_long_run": 0.4, "hardware_margin_halflife": 5.0, "frontier_compute_multiple": 4.0, "frontier_capacity_inertia": 0.5, "climate_damage_rate": 0.0, "climate_energy_rate": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_share": 0.0, "climate_adaptation_effectiveness": 6.0, "political_feedback": true, "policy_reaction": true, "aggregate_demand": true, "capital_markets": true } }, "overrides": {}, "warnings": { "no_politics": [ "2030: displaced pool 0.15 above 0.15: out of sample" ], "robotics_fast": [ "2044: displaced pool 0.17 above 0.15: out of sample" ] } }