AI transition economics model

67 scenario(s) run, 2019-2050; the charts and tables show the scenarios ticked below (open a family to add one). Indices are 2025 anchor = 1 unless stated. The shaded years before 2025 are the record (observed series where one exists, reconstructed from the fitting targets otherwise), not simulation.

Falls with hardware price-performance and algorithmic efficiency; the price charged (ai_price) sits above it by the rent channel.

A = (R * C_train)^k: effective frontier compute. Drives the task horizon and the research recursion.

h = h0 * A^kh, anchored to METR; half of cognitive tasks become substitutable at a work-month (160 h).

d ln R/dt = κ·E^λ·R^−φ·soft(R): research effort E is a CES of research labor (human + AI agents) and experiment compute; φ is the fishing-out exponent. Full equations at /equations.

Emergent. High = algorithm-bound regime, decoupled from fabs and power.

Below 1 means installed compute is stranded for lack of power.

Ceiling on diffusion; never exceeds 1 - accountability floor.

Logistic toward the ceiling, gated by cost pressure and political friction.

Logistic toward the physical substitutable share, gated by robot cost vs the physical wage, capped by fleet buildout (TEM-29).

(1 - D_p) x (physical volume / productivity)^psi_p x wage^-eta_p; people available beyond it join the pool.

(1 - D) * (1 + new_task_rate * (volume - 1)): the race between displacement and new tasks.

The stress variable. Political friction switches on above the threshold.

Negative feedback: slows adoption when stress is high; escalates above a second threshold.

Uncompensated pool + rising pool + long-term pool + income-growth gap + local concentration above trigger.

Rises toward tr0 + a*stress with a lag; capped by non-labor income.

Licensing and liability rise with friction, fall with cost pressure x concentration.

Long-term pool exits; the China-shock channel.

Baumol shift: cheap cognition, expensive housing, energy and care.

Rent capture scales with deployment concentration.

Volume-weighted; does not capture quality gains.

Counts near-free cognitive services as real consumption. Compare the physical-goods lens below.

Nominal income deflated by the physical price: housing, food, energy, care.

Wages only; excludes capital payout and transfers.

Only the kappa share of this reaches households as spending.

Output below potential because households cannot buy it; feeds the displaced pool.

Below 1 is a capex cut. Driven by expected ROI vs the obsolescence-adjusted hurdle and by utilisation.

Compute needed for delivered AI volume over compute available. Falls as efficiency outruns demand.

Book value above replacement cost. Write-down exposure from the hardware price decline.

Negative during the late-2020s price collapse; large once adoption catches up.

Committed through a lagged pipeline (grid 5 yr, BTM gas 2 yr, retrofit 1 yr) against capped forecasts.

Arrivals from the commitment pipeline, capped by the buildout rate.

Base trend plus scarcity markup when headroom is short.

Grid capex socialised across ratepayers: a transfer from households to AI capital.

Book written down to max(value in use, fair value); IAS 36 / ASC 360.

Summary

scenario	year	diffusion	ai cost	human cog demand	displaced pool	labor share	physical basket share	demand index	physical slack	real output	frontier hhi
baseline	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
baseline	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
baseline	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
baseline	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
compute_bound	2030	0.32	3.0e-04	0.84	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.21	0.01	1.17	0.35
compute_bound	2035	0.64	3.8e-06	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.37	0	1.86	0.48
compute_bound	2040	0.75	1.2e-07	0.66	0.05	0.58	0.68	3.95	0	2.74	0.64
compute_bound	2050	0.84	8.9e-09	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.27	0	5.63	1
algorithm_cliff	2030	0.39	2.6e-07	0.84	0.06	0.59	0.7	1.62	0	1.4	0.35
algorithm_cliff	2035	0.69	1.3e-12	0.72	0.07	0.58	0.68	3.45	0	2.38	0.46
algorithm_cliff	2040	0.76	4.0e-14	0.69	0.04	0.59	0.67	5.27	0	3.35	0.64
algorithm_cliff	2050	0.84	3.7e-15	0.64	0.1	0.58	0.63	13	0	7.12	1
sustained_recursion	2030	0.38	3.0e-05	0.82	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.41	0	1.29	0.35
sustained_recursion	2035	0.69	1.7e-12	0.7	0.07	0.58	0.69	2.64	0	1.99	0.48
sustained_recursion	2040	0.76	1.5e-13	0.67	0.04	0.59	0.68	4.31	0	2.92	0.64
sustained_recursion	2050	0.84	3.2e-14	0.62	0.1	0.58	0.64	11.2	0	6.44	1
breakthrough_driven	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
breakthrough_driven	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
breakthrough_driven	2040	0.77	1.8e-09	0.66	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.08	0	2.81	0.84
breakthrough_driven	2050	0.84	1.0e-11	0.62	0.11	0.57	0.64	10.2	0	6.04	1
breakthrough_frequent	2030	0.38	4.5e-05	0.82	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.41	0	1.28	0.35
breakthrough_frequent	2035	0.67	2.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.51	0	1.93	0.55
breakthrough_frequent	2040	0.77	1.9e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.19	0	2.86	0.78
breakthrough_frequent	2050	0.84	3.0e-11	0.62	0.1	0.57	0.64	10.1	0	6	1
energy_constrained	2030	0.27	3.0e-04	0.87	0.06	0.58	0.7	1.13	0.03	1.1	0.32
energy_constrained	2035	0.59	6.3e-06	0.71	0.07	0.56	0.69	2.19	0	1.76	0.38
energy_constrained	2040	0.74	1.8e-07	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	3.73	0	2.62	0.53
energy_constrained	2050	0.84	1.4e-09	0.61	0.06	0.58	0.65	9.33	0	5.54	1
energy_abundant	2030	0.37	1.0e-04	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
energy_abundant	2035	0.67	2.3e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.5	0	1.92	0.46
energy_abundant	2040	0.76	5.5e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
energy_abundant	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.7	0	5.83	1
slow_diffusion	2030	0.09	9.4e-05	0.97	0.03	0.6	0.7	1.06	0.05	1.06	0.36
slow_diffusion	2035	0.28	3.6e-07	0.93	0.04	0.59	0.69	1.64	3.3e-03	1.47	0.47
slow_diffusion	2040	0.52	7.7e-09	0.77	0.08	0.59	0.68	2.93	0	2.21	0.64
slow_diffusion	2050	0.78	2.8e-10	0.59	0.15	0.57	0.64	8.52	0	5.06	1
fast_diffusion	2030	0.35	1.1e-04	0.84	0.06	0.58	0.7	1.32	0	1.24	0.35
fast_diffusion	2035	0.69	3.7e-07	0.68	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.52	0	1.93	0.48
fast_diffusion	2040	0.77	4.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.16	0	2.86	0.64
fast_diffusion	2050	0.84	2.0e-10	0.62	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.97	0	5.96	1
weak_institutions	2030	0.35	1.1e-04	0.83	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
weak_institutions	2035	0.65	3.5e-07	0.7	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.41	0	1.88	0.48
weak_institutions	2040	0.74	6.0e-09	0.68	0.04	0.58	0.68	3.98	0	2.75	0.64
weak_institutions	2050	0.82	2.7e-10	0.62	0.08	0.57	0.65	9.24	0	5.55	1
strong_institutions	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.32	0	1.23	0.35
strong_institutions	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.58	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
strong_institutions	2040	0.77	5.8e-09	0.67	0.05	0.59	0.68	4.15	0	2.84	0.64
strong_institutions	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.62	0.1	0.58	0.64	9.81	0	5.89	1
no_new_tasks	2030	0.34	1.1e-04	0.83	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.32	0	1.23	0.35
no_new_tasks	2035	0.66	3.7e-07	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.45	0	1.9	0.48
no_new_tasks	2040	0.76	5.1e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.81	0.64
no_new_tasks	2050	0.84	2.2e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.79	0	5.86	1
fixed_complementarity	2030	0.39	1.1e-04	0.9	0.04	0.59	0.7	1.29	0	1.22	0.35
fixed_complementarity	2035	0.72	3.6e-07	0.81	0.05	0.58	0.69	2.19	0	1.8	0.48
fixed_complementarity	2040	0.79	6.1e-09	0.81	0.03	0.58	0.68	3.21	0.01	2.45	0.64
fixed_complementarity	2050	0.83	2.3e-10	0.81	0.12	0.57	0.65	5.02	0.09	3.76	1
created_complementarity	2030	0.39	1.0e-04	0.92	0.03	0.59	0.7	1.26	1.7e-03	1.2	0.35
created_complementarity	2035	0.72	3.4e-07	0.85	0.03	0.58	0.69	2.07	5.7e-03	1.74	0.47
created_complementarity	2040	0.8	7.3e-09	0.85	0.02	0.58	0.68	2.83	0.03	2.25	0.64
created_complementarity	2050	0.83	2.8e-10	0.86	0.13	0.57	0.65	3.9	0.14	3.14	1
research_handful_large	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
research_handful_large	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
research_handful_large	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
research_handful_large	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
autor_optimist	2030	0.39	1.1e-04	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
autor_optimist	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.5	0	1.92	0.48
autor_optimist	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.11	0	2.82	0.64
autor_optimist	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.75	0	5.85	1
stress_test	2030	0.39	2.5e-07	0.84	0.06	0.59	0.7	1.62	0	1.4	0.35
stress_test	2035	0.7	1.1e-12	0.72	0.07	0.58	0.68	3.47	0	2.39	0.46
stress_test	2040	0.74	3.8e-14	0.7	0.03	0.58	0.67	5.22	1.9e-03	3.32	0.64
stress_test	2050	0.82	3.9e-15	0.65	0.08	0.57	0.64	12.9	0	7.02	1
soft_landing	2030	0.1	2.5e-04	0.97	0.03	0.6	0.7	1.06	0.05	1.05	0.36
soft_landing	2035	0.28	2.3e-06	0.93	0.04	0.59	0.69	1.58	5.3e-03	1.44	0.47
soft_landing	2040	0.52	1.0e-07	0.77	0.08	0.59	0.68	2.8	0	2.15	0.64
soft_landing	2050	0.78	8.0e-09	0.58	0.14	0.58	0.64	8.04	0	4.88	1
no_politics	2030	0.49	1.1e-04	0.66	0.15	0.53	0.71	1.23	0.03	1.18	0.35
no_politics	2035	0.84	3.7e-07	0.59	0.11	0.54	0.7	2.65	0	2.02	0.48
no_politics	2040	0.85	4.8e-09	0.63	0.06	0.57	0.68	4.4	0	2.97	0.64
no_politics	2050	0.85	2.1e-10	0.57	0.15	0.56	0.64	9.84	0	5.84	1
delayed_institutions	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.23	0.35
delayed_institutions	2035	0.7	3.5e-07	0.68	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
delayed_institutions	2040	0.77	5.7e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.15	0	2.83	0.64
delayed_institutions	2050	0.81	2.6e-10	0.63	0.09	0.58	0.65	9.43	0	5.69	1
captured_institutions	2030	0.39	1.1e-04	0.79	0.09	0.57	0.7	1.29	0	1.23	0.35
captured_institutions	2035	0.7	3.6e-07	0.66	0.08	0.57	0.7	2.44	0	1.91	0.48
captured_institutions	2040	0.78	5.4e-09	0.65	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.06	0	2.8	0.64
captured_institutions	2050	0.85	2.5e-10	0.59	0.15	0.57	0.64	9.67	0	5.88	1
regime_change	2030	0.24	1.5e-04	0.88	0.07	0.58	0.83	1.01	0.06	1.03	0.34
regime_change	2035	0.45	2.9e-06	0.72	0.12	0.55	0.84	1.26	0.09	1.19	0.4
regime_change	2040	0.65	1.5e-07	0.56	0.12	0.53	0.85	2.02	0.05	1.67	0.47
regime_change	2050	0.75	1.8e-09	0.46	0.04	0.49	0.85	2.98	0	2.53	0.69
friction_only	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.23	0.35
friction_only	2035	0.72	3.5e-07	0.66	0.09	0.57	0.7	2.45	0	1.91	0.48
friction_only	2040	0.85	5.6e-09	0.63	0.05	0.58	0.69	4.22	0	2.86	0.64
friction_only	2050	0.85	2.6e-10	0.62	0.06	0.58	0.65	9.62	0	5.74	1
demand_feedback_off	2030	0.38	1.1e-04	0.77	0.09	0.59	0.73	1.24	0	1.16	0.35
demand_feedback_off	2035	0.64	3.3e-07	0.58	0.11	0.58	0.77	1.78	0	1.47	0.48
demand_feedback_off	2040	0.73	7.0e-09	0.51	0.08	0.58	0.78	2.35	0	1.84	0.64
demand_feedback_off	2050	0.84	3.4e-10	0.4	0.09	0.58	0.79	3.72	0	2.85	1
narrow_ownership	2030	0.37	9.9e-05	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.71	1.28	0	1.22	0.36
narrow_ownership	2035	0.66	3.8e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.7	2.45	0	1.85	0.48
narrow_ownership	2040	0.75	6.0e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.69	4.02	0	2.67	0.64
narrow_ownership	2050	0.84	2.8e-10	0.6	0.1	0.57	0.66	9.32	0	5.36	1
citizen_dividend	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
citizen_dividend	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
citizen_dividend	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
citizen_dividend	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
universal_transfers	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
universal_transfers	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
universal_transfers	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
universal_transfers	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
broad_ownership	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.69	1.32	0	1.24	0.35
broad_ownership	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.68	2.45	0	1.96	0.48
broad_ownership	2040	0.76	5.7e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.67	4.05	0	2.92	0.64
broad_ownership	2050	0.84	2.6e-10	0.62	0.1	0.58	0.63	9.65	0	6.16	1
wage_insurance	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.33	0	1.24	0.35
wage_insurance	2035	0.68	3.7e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.61	0	1.97	0.48
wage_insurance	2040	0.78	5.1e-09	0.68	0.05	0.58	0.67	4.4	0	2.95	0.64
wage_insurance	2050	0.84	2.2e-10	0.63	0.12	0.57	0.63	10.8	0	6.32	1
capital_markets_off	2030	0.37	9.7e-05	0.82	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.34	0	1.25	0.36
capital_markets_off	2035	0.67	2.6e-07	0.69	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.5	0	1.92	0.47
capital_markets_off	2040	0.76	3.3e-09	0.71	0.03	0.58	0.68	4.18	0	2.84	0.66
capital_markets_off	2050	0.85	1.7e-11	1.5	4.2e-03	0.57	0.79	10.6	0	6.2	1
overbuild	2030	0.38	9.5e-05	0.84	0.06	0.59	0.7	1.46	0	1.32	0.35
overbuild	2035	0.67	2.5e-07	0.71	0.07	0.58	0.69	2.63	0	1.99	0.48
overbuild	2040	0.76	3.8e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.17	0	2.86	0.64
overbuild	2050	0.84	1.0e-10	0.62	0.1	0.58	0.64	10.1	0	6.02	1
capital_discipline	2030	0.36	9.0e-05	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.22	0.36
capital_discipline	2035	0.67	4.6e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.48	0	1.91	0.48
capital_discipline	2040	0.76	5.6e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.81	0.64
capital_discipline	2050	0.84	2.3e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.81	0	5.87	1
grid_bound	2030	0.27	1.9e-04	0.88	0.05	0.58	0.7	1.18	0.02	1.14	0.35
grid_bound	2035	0.62	2.5e-06	0.7	0.08	0.56	0.69	2.3	0	1.82	0.44
grid_bound	2040	0.75	4.4e-08	0.66	0.05	0.58	0.68	3.9	0	2.71	0.65
grid_bound	2050	0.84	5.3e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.63	0	5.75	1
competitive_intelligence	2030	0.36	1.9e-04	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.22	0.36
competitive_intelligence	2035	0.67	8.2e-07	0.71	0.07	0.58	0.69	2.63	0	1.99	0.46
competitive_intelligence	2040	0.75	2.0e-08	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4	0	2.79	0.64
competitive_intelligence	2050	0.84	1.2e-09	0.62	0.09	0.58	0.65	9.67	0	5.8	1
no_robotics	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.05	0.57	0.7	1.3	4.3e-03	1.22	0.35
no_robotics	2035	0.69	3.8e-07	0.7	0.03	0.57	0.7	2.49	0	1.91	0.48
no_robotics	2040	0.81	5.0e-09	0.66	0.02	0.58	0.69	4	0	2.71	0.64
no_robotics	2050	0.85	2.1e-10	0.63	3.9e-03	0.6	0.68	7.89	0	4.6	1
robots_frozen	2030	0.38	1.1e-04	0.8	0.06	0.57	0.7	1.29	0	1.22	0.35
robots_frozen	2035	0.69	3.7e-07	0.69	0.04	0.57	0.7	2.46	0	1.89	0.48
robots_frozen	2040	0.81	5.4e-09	0.66	0.02	0.59	0.69	4.01	0	2.72	0.64
robots_frozen	2050	0.85	2.5e-10	0.63	1.9e-03	0.6	0.68	7.88	0	4.62	1
robot_finance_loose	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
robot_finance_loose	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
robot_finance_loose	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
robot_finance_loose	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
robot_finance_tight	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
robot_finance_tight	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
robot_finance_tight	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
robot_finance_tight	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
robot_capital_cheap	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
robot_capital_cheap	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
robot_capital_cheap	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
robot_capital_cheap	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
robotics_fast	2030	0.36	1.0e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.32	0	1.24	0.35
robotics_fast	2035	0.65	3.5e-07	0.69	0.1	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
robotics_fast	2040	0.74	5.9e-09	0.66	0.09	0.58	0.67	4.14	0	2.86	0.64
robotics_fast	2050	0.8	2.7e-10	0.57	0.17	0.56	0.63	8.95	0	5.46	1
robotics_slow	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.81	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.23	0.35
robotics_slow	2035	0.68	3.6e-07	0.69	0.06	0.57	0.69	2.47	0	1.9	0.48
robotics_slow	2040	0.79	5.6e-09	0.67	0.02	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.8	0.64
robotics_slow	2050	0.85	2.6e-10	0.64	2.7e-03	0.59	0.67	8.89	0	5.24	1
scarce_intelligence	2030	0.28	3.0e-04	0.86	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.01	0.06	1.02	0.32
scarce_intelligence	2035	0.48	6.4e-06	0.68	0.12	0.52	0.7	1.33	0.07	1.25	0.38
scarce_intelligence	2040	0.66	2.8e-07	0.56	0.07	0.46	0.7	2.3	0	1.94	0.47
scarce_intelligence	2050	0.78	3.6e-09	0.49	0.02	0.38	0.7	5.04	0	3.59	0.66
btm_gas	2030	0.39	7.6e-05	0.82	0.07	0.58	0.7	1.37	0	1.27	0.36
btm_gas	2035	0.68	2.2e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.52	0	1.93	0.46
btm_gas	2040	0.76	5.4e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
btm_gas	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.7	0	5.84	1
obsolescence_shock	2030	0.37	6.1e-05	0.81	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.41
obsolescence_shock	2035	0.68	1.7e-07	0.68	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.5	0	1.92	0.69
obsolescence_shock	2040	0.8	2.1e-09	0.65	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.24	0	2.88	1
obsolescence_shock	2050	0.84	1.3e-10	0.61	0.11	0.57	0.64	10.1	0	6.03	1
no_services	2030	0.35	8.3e-05	0.78	0.1	0.56	0.7	1.12	0.03	1.1	0.35
no_services	2035	0.64	6.0e-07	0.68	0.08	0.56	0.69	2.11	0	1.72	0.48
no_services	2040	0.76	6.4e-09	0.66	0.05	0.59	0.68	3.34	0	2.45	0.64
no_services	2050	0.84	1.8e-10	0.6	0.1	0.59	0.65	7.69	0	4.98	1
thin_margins	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
thin_margins	2035	0.67	3.5e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.49	0	1.92	0.48
thin_margins	2040	0.76	5.8e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.64
thin_margins	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.73	0	5.84	1
rich_services	2030	0.35	1.1e-04	0.83	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.34	0	1.26	0.35
rich_services	2035	0.66	3.8e-07	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.75	0	2.04	0.48
rich_services	2040	0.76	5.0e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.81	0	3.12	0.64
rich_services	2050	0.84	1.7e-10	0.62	0.1	0.57	0.64	11.8	0	6.59	1
services_total_revenue_sizing	2030	0.4	9.7e-05	0.83	0.07	0.59	0.7	1.43	0	1.29	0.36
services_total_revenue_sizing	2035	0.68	3.0e-07	0.7	0.07	0.58	0.69	2.57	0	1.96	0.46
services_total_revenue_sizing	2040	0.76	8.6e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	3.98	0	2.78	0.64
services_total_revenue_sizing	2050	0.84	4.8e-10	0.64	0.06	0.58	0.65	9.38	0	5.62	1
acemoglu_2024	2030	0.07	0.06	1	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.03	0.04	1.04	0.3
acemoglu_2024	2035	0.08	0.05	1.01	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.07	0.06	1.08	0.3
acemoglu_2024	2040	0.08	0.04	1.04	1.9e-03	0.61	0.69	1.1	0.09	1.11	0.3
acemoglu_2024	2050	0.08	0.04	1.25	7.6e-05	0.62	0.72	1.29	0	1.37	0.3
ace_plus_capability	2030	0.11	0.03	0.97	0.03	0.6	0.7	1.03	0.05	1.04	0.3
ace_plus_capability	2035	0.41	0.03	0.93	0.03	0.58	0.7	1.42	0	1.34	0.3
ace_plus_capability	2040	0.63	0.02	0.96	0.02	0.56	0.71	1.81	0	1.66	0.3
ace_plus_capability	2050	0.82	0.02	1.37	9.5e-03	0.56	0.76	2.5	0	2.34	0.3
ace_plus_price	2030	0.07	1.8e-04	1	9.5e-03	0.61	0.7	1.04	0.04	1.04	0.35
ace_plus_price	2035	0.08	2.4e-06	1.02	8.2e-03	0.61	0.7	1.08	0.06	1.08	0.46
ace_plus_price	2040	0.08	1.7e-07	1.05	1.5e-03	0.62	0.69	1.11	0.09	1.11	0.64
ace_plus_price	2050	0.08	1.5e-08	1.09	5.7e-05	0.62	0.69	1.16	0.15	1.17	1
ace_plus_lag	2030	0.08	0.06	1	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.04	0.04	1.04	0.3
ace_plus_lag	2035	0.08	0.05	1.01	9.2e-03	0.61	0.7	1.07	0.07	1.08	0.3
ace_plus_lag	2040	0.08	0.04	1.04	1.7e-03	0.61	0.69	1.1	0.1	1.11	0.3
ace_plus_lag	2050	0.08	0.04	1.09	6.7e-05	0.62	0.7	1.16	0.15	1.17	0.3
ace_plus_new_tasks	2030	0.07	0.06	1	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.03	0.04	1.04	0.3
ace_plus_new_tasks	2035	0.08	0.05	1.01	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.07	0.06	1.08	0.3
ace_plus_new_tasks	2040	0.08	0.04	1.04	1.9e-03	0.61	0.69	1.1	0.09	1.11	0.3
ace_plus_new_tasks	2050	0.08	0.04	1.25	7.6e-05	0.62	0.72	1.29	0	1.37	0.3
ace_plus_review_decline	2030	0.07	0.06	1	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.04	0.04	1.04	0.3
ace_plus_review_decline	2035	0.08	0.05	1.01	9.9e-03	0.61	0.7	1.07	0.06	1.08	0.3
ace_plus_review_decline	2040	0.08	0.04	1.04	1.9e-03	0.61	0.69	1.11	0.09	1.11	0.3
ace_plus_review_decline	2050	0.08	0.04	1.24	7.5e-05	0.62	0.72	1.3	0	1.37	0.3
ace_demand_off	2030	0.07	0.06	1.01	2.2e-03	0.61	0.71	1.07	0	1.08	0.3
ace_demand_off	2035	0.08	0.05	1.03	1.0e-03	0.61	0.71	1.14	0	1.15	0.3
ace_demand_off	2040	0.08	0.04	1.06	2.0e-04	0.61	0.72	1.2	0	1.21	0.3
ace_demand_off	2050	0.08	0.04	1.13	7.5e-06	0.62	0.74	1.3	0	1.34	0.3
no_ai	2030	0	3.1e-04	1.02	0	0.62	0.7	1.02	0.03	1.02	0.41
no_ai	2035	0	4.6e-06	1.04	0	0.62	0.7	1.05	0.05	1.05	0.72
no_ai	2040	0	5.0e-07	1.06	0	0.62	0.7	1.07	0.08	1.07	1
no_ai	2050	0	1.1e-07	1.08	0	0.62	0.7	1.09	0.14	1.1	1
no_cognitive_ai	2030	0	7.2e-05	1	0.01	0.61	0.7	1.02	0.04	1.03	0.35
no_cognitive_ai	2035	0	7.2e-07	1	0.04	0.61	0.69	1.06	0.06	1.07	0.46
no_cognitive_ai	2040	0	3.2e-08	1	0.05	0.61	0.69	1.1	0.08	1.13	0.64
no_cognitive_ai	2050	0	1.3e-09	0.96	0.15	0.58	0.67	1.23	0.09	1.32	1
cognitive_only	2030	0.29	3.5e-04	0.83	0.06	0.57	0.7	1.08	0.04	1.07	0.35
cognitive_only	2035	0.61	3.3e-05	0.69	0.05	0.56	0.7	1.96	0	1.63	0.48
cognitive_only	2040	0.78	4.7e-06	0.65	0.02	0.59	0.69	3.13	0	2.3	0.64
cognitive_only	2050	0.83	1.5e-06	0.49	0.03	0.54	0.7	4.64	0.13	3.15	1
no_research_agents	2030	0.32	4.5e-04	0.83	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.17	0.02	1.14	0.35
no_research_agents	2035	0.61	3.0e-05	0.71	0.07	0.56	0.69	2.23	0	1.79	0.48
no_research_agents	2040	0.74	5.7e-06	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	3.7	0	2.62	0.64
no_research_agents	2050	0.82	1.7e-06	0.55	0.12	0.54	0.66	7.43	0.02	4.79	1
one_tier	2030	0.37	1.0e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
one_tier	2035	0.67	3.4e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.51	0	1.93	0.48
one_tier	2040	0.76	5.7e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.11	0	2.82	0.64
one_tier	2050	0.84	2.6e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.72	0	5.84	1
frontier_heavy	2030	0.37	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
frontier_heavy	2035	0.67	3.6e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.5	0	1.92	0.48
frontier_heavy	2040	0.76	6.0e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.11	0	2.82	0.64
frontier_heavy	2050	0.84	2.7e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.72	0	5.84	1
autonomy_discounted	2030	0.36	8.8e-05	0.83	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.29	0	1.22	0.36
autonomy_discounted	2035	0.66	4.4e-07	0.7	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.45	0	1.9	0.48
autonomy_discounted	2040	0.76	5.9e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.04	0	2.79	0.64
autonomy_discounted	2050	0.84	2.5e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.63	0	5.79	1
research_long_horizon	2030	0.35	1.2e-04	0.83	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.3	0	1.23	0.35
research_long_horizon	2035	0.66	3.7e-07	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.47	0	1.91	0.48
research_long_horizon	2040	0.76	5.6e-09	0.67	0.05	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.81	0.64
research_long_horizon	2050	0.84	2.5e-10	0.61	0.1	0.57	0.64	9.75	0	5.84	1
climate_central	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
climate_central	2035	0.67	3.6e-07	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.48	0	1.91	0.49
climate_central	2040	0.76	5.9e-09	0.68	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.09	0	2.81	0.65
climate_central	2050	0.84	2.9e-10	0.63	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.66	0	5.79	1
climate_adapted	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.08	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.35
climate_adapted	2035	0.67	3.6e-07	0.69	0.08	0.57	0.69	2.48	0	1.91	0.49
climate_adapted	2040	0.76	6.0e-09	0.67	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.1	0	2.82	0.65
climate_adapted	2050	0.84	3.0e-10	0.62	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.73	0	5.83	1
climate_regional_high	2030	0.36	1.1e-04	0.82	0.07	0.57	0.7	1.31	0	1.23	0.36
climate_regional_high	2035	0.67	3.7e-07	0.7	0.07	0.57	0.69	2.47	0	1.91	0.49
climate_regional_high	2040	0.76	6.0e-09	0.68	0.04	0.58	0.68	4.08	0	2.8	0.66
climate_regional_high	2050	0.84	3.2e-10	0.64	0.1	0.57	0.65	9.59	0	5.75	1

Critical transitions

critical transition (first year)	baseline	compute_bound	algorithm_cliff	sustained_recursion	breakthrough_driven	breakthrough_frequent	energy_constrained	energy_abundant	slow_diffusion	fast_diffusion	weak_institutions	strong_institutions	no_new_tasks	fixed_complementarity	created_complementarity	research_handful_large	autor_optimist	stress_test	soft_landing	no_politics	delayed_institutions	captured_institutions	regime_change	friction_only	demand_feedback_off	narrow_ownership	citizen_dividend	universal_transfers	broad_ownership	wage_insurance	capital_markets_off	overbuild	capital_discipline	grid_bound	competitive_intelligence	no_robotics	robots_frozen	robot_finance_loose	robot_finance_tight	robot_capital_cheap	robotics_fast	robotics_slow	scarce_intelligence	btm_gas	obsolescence_shock	no_services	thin_margins	rich_services	services_total_revenue_sizing	acemoglu_2024	ace_plus_capability	ace_plus_price	ace_plus_lag	ace_plus_new_tasks	ace_plus_review_decline	ace_demand_off	no_ai	no_cognitive_ai	cognitive_only	no_research_agents	one_tier	frontier_heavy	autonomy_discounted	research_long_horizon	climate_central	climate_adapted	climate_regional_high
capability
Agents complete work-month tasks at 50% (METR 160 h)	2027	2028	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2027	2027	2027	2028	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	never	2027	never	never	never	never	never	2028	2027	2028	2028	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027
Agents complete work-month tasks at 80% (unsupervised proxy)	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	never	2028	never	never	never	never	never	2029	2028	2029	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028
Half of cognitive tasks technically substitutable	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	never	2028	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028
adoption
AI performs half of the 2025 cognitive task stock	2033	2033	2032	2032	2033	2032	2033	2033	2040	2032	2033	2033	2033	2032	2032	2033	2032	2032	2040	2031	2032	2032	2037	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2032	2033	2032	2033	2033	2033	2032	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2036	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	2032	never	2037	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2034	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033
AI performs half of cognitive work by volume	2030	2030	2029	2030	2030	2030	2031	2030	2035	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2031	2030	2030	2029	2035	2030	2030	2030	2035	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2029	2030	2031	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2034	2030	2030	2031	2030	2030	2029	never	2034	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2032	2031	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030	2030
AI performs 90% of cognitive work by volume	2034	2034	2033	2033	2034	2033	2035	2034	2039	2032	2034	2034	2033	2036	2040	2034	2034	2032	2040	2031	2033	2033	2039	2033	2035	2034	2034	2034	2034	2033	2034	2033	2034	2034	2033	2033	2033	2034	2034	2034	2034	2033	2039	2033	2033	2034	2034	2034	2033	never	2041	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2035	2034	2033	2033	2034	2034	2034	2034	2033
research
AI is the majority of research labor	2027	2027	2026	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2026	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	never	2027	never	never	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027
AI is 90% of research labor	2028	2029	2027	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2027	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	never	2028	never	never	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028
Human research and engineering down to the frontier handful	2046	2047	2045	2046	2044	2044	2047	2046	never	2045	2047	2046	2046	2043	2042	never	2046	2037	never	2036	2038	2044	2049	2039	2049	2046	2046	2046	2046	2045	2044	2046	2046	2046	2046	2041	2042	2046	2046	2046	2042	2043	2046	2046	2042	2046	2046	2046	2046	never	2046	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2046	2046	2046	2046	2046	2046	2045
compute
AI output carries a rationing premium of 20% or more (powered inference short of demand)	2028	2028	never	2029	2028	2029	2028	2028	never	2027	2029	2028	2028	never	never	2028	2029	never	never	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	never	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	never	2035	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2028	2028	2028	2028	2029	2028	2028	2028	2028
Investment cut below half of trend	2034	2035	2032	2034	2034	2034	2036	2034	2032	2035	2034	2034	2034	2034	2033	2034	2034	2032	2032	2035	2034	2034	2026	2034	2033	2034	2034	2034	2034	2034	never	2033	2026	2036	2026	2034	2034	2034	2034	2034	2034	2034	never	2034	2036	2026	2034	2035	2032	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2036	2034	2034	2026	2034	2034	2034	2034
Power binds (utilization below 90%)	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026	2026
labor
Displaced pool above 5% of the workforce	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2036	2028	2029	2029	2029	2031	2046	2029	2029	2029	2036	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2030	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2040	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029
Displaced pool above 10% of the workforce	never	never	2050	2050	2050	2050	never	never	2047	2032	never	never	2050	2049	2049	never	never	never	2047	2030	never	2032	2034	never	2031	never	never	never	never	2050	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2042	never	2035	never	2050	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2046	never	2049	never	never	never	never	never	never	2050
robotics
Robots perform a quarter of the 2025 physical task stock	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044	2046	2044	2043	2044	2045	2044	2044	2042	2042	2044	2044	2045	2043	2039	2044	2043	never	2045	2045	2044	2044	2044	2044	2043	never	2044	2044	2044	2044	never	never	2044	2044	2044	2039	never	never	2044	2043	2044	2044	2044	2044	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2041	never	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044	2044
Robots perform half of the 2025 physical task stock	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2050	2049	never	never	never	never	2046	never	2049	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2050	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2044	never	never	never	2050	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2049	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never
Physical employment down a quarter from 2025	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2046	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2046	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never
labor
Cognitive employment down a quarter from 2025	2033	2033	2034	2033	2033	2032	2033	2033	2041	2031	2034	2033	2032	never	never	2033	2033	2033	2041	2030	2032	2031	2035	2032	2031	2033	2033	2033	2033	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2035	2032	2032	2033	2033	2033	2033	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033	2033
Cognitive employment down by half from 2025	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2044	never	2041	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2045	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2049	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never
policy
Accountability floor raised above 25%	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2030	2031	never	2030	2033	2030	2030	2032	2033	2031	2031	2033	never	never	never	2032	2031	never	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2030	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	never	2037	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2031	2030	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031
Transfers replace half of lost cognitive wages	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	never	2032	never	2030	2032	2032	never	2031	2031	never	never	never	never	never	2032	never	2031	never	2031	2031	2031	2025	2031	2031	2031	2030	2031	2032	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031	2031
distribution
Labor income below half of total income	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2044	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	2038	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never	never
Labor income no longer covers household consumption	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2036	2028	2029	2029	2029	2030	2031	2029	2029	2029	2036	2029	2029	2029	never	2029	2029	never	2029	2029	2025	2029	2029	2030	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	never	2035	never	never	never	never	never	never	2049	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029	2029
price
AI output priced below a thousandth of the 2025 wage	2038	2038	2031	2036	2038	2038	2040	2037	2035	2038	2037	2038	2038	2037	2035	2038	2037	2031	2036	2038	2038	2038	never	2038	2037	2038	2038	2038	2038	2038	2037	2035	2038	2039	2029	2038	2038	2038	2038	2038	2037	2038	never	2037	2038	2039	2038	2037	2035	never	never	2029	never	never	never	never	2048	never	2041	2039	2037	2037	2037	2038	2038	2038	2038